CSE analysis shows it is paving way for a weak deal
Temperature goal yet to be finalized
No long-term global goal on adaptation
Global carbon budget not mentioned in the main text
Ex-ante review process deleted
Finance section particularly weak; there is an attempt to include international development assistance as part of climate finance
Compensation and liability for the loss and damage due to climate change deleted from the text on US insistence
Weak deal on technology transfer; IPR not even mentioned
Paris, December 10: The draft Paris Outcome text, that was released today, reflects major disagreements between countries on many elements, including finance and technology transfer. The draft text is also weak on how countries, especially developed countries, are going to enhance their ambition to cut emissions before and after 2020.
“The current text essentially promotes a bottom-up regime characterized by the voluntary country-driven climate actions, further weakening the historical responsibilities of developed countries. If nothing changes, we are looking at a weak deal at Paris,” said Chandra Bhushan, Deputy Director General, Centre for Science and Environment.
Highlights of the Text
Temperature goal: There are disagreements on temperature goal as currently it comprises three options - below 2 degrees Celsius, well below 2 degrees and below 1.5 degrees.
Mitigation: It has been streamlined compared with the previous version, meaning that countries have more agreements than disagreements. However, mitigation actions have been significantly diluted.
Ex-ante implying prior review of the emissions reduction efforts of countries before their final communication has been removed. This implies no review of ambition of countries on what they should be doing in accordance with equity and Common but Differentiated Responsibility (CBDR).
Equitable distribution of a global carbon budget based on historical responsibilities and climate justice has been removed from the current text. This is now mentioned in the draft decision text accompanying the Agreement text.
The section on International transport emissions, including aviation, has been removed and does not find a mention in the new draft
Finance: Developed countries are trying to reduce their contributions and shift the burden to developing countries.
There are efforts to link climate finance, including for building resilience in developing countries, with international development assistance. Developing countries have always demanded climate finance to be separate and additional to Overseas Development Assistance.
Adaptation
The global goal on adaptation based on assessment of needs and adequacy of support has been removed.
Financial commitments on adaptation is specified but no concrete commitments have been given in this regard.
Loss and Damage
The whole text on loss and damage is in brackets, implying there is no consensus and convergence among parties to reach a compromise. There is no mention of liability and compensation in the text.
Stocktake
A stocktake will be on the basis of best available science. The scope of stocktake is retained to include mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation and support. However, countries have agreed to do first stock take in 2023/2024.
Transparency
This part requires more negotiations as there is little clarity on whether it would be a unified or differentiated framework for transparency.
Commenting on the draft agreement, CSE Director General Sunita Narain said, “In the current text, ambition is not locked in. There should be greater focus on how to increase ambition in accordance with equity and CBDR.”
“The removal of the language on global carbon budget would mean that equity is wiped off the new agreement as fair allocation of the carbon budget is the only way to operationalize equity,” concluded Bhushan.
CSE has a five-member team attending the CoP21 deliberations in Paris. Please contact us if you need to speak with any of them.
The CSE Delhi team: Souparno Banerjee, souparno@cseindia.org, 99108 64339 /
CSE Paris team: Chandra Bhushan, Chandra@cseindia.org;
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